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Program Lead, Modeling/Forecasting

Job Summary

Reporting to the Director, Data and Planning, the Program Lead will be part of the Data and Planning division, and will be responsible for advancing health workforce modelling and forecasting for HWC. In the short term, this will involve supporting an environmental scan of health workforce forecasting models across the country and may include the establishment of development of a modelling technical working group. In the longer term, this will evolve into the development of a Health Workforce modelling and forecasting strategy for the country, the development of modelling toolkits, as well as conducting predictive modelling and health workforce scenario planning where required.

Duties and Responsibilities

  • Working with the senior team to support the development of a health workforce modelling and forecasting strategy for Canada, develops associated work plans, including project scheduling and reporting.
  • Works with external contractors and contributes to the environmental scan on pan-Canadian HHR supply and demand forecasting models, supports the development of a final pan Canadian report of forecasting/modelling summaries and recommendations for the future.
  • Leads the establishment of a pan Canadian technical working group (including ministries, regions, employers, academics, professional associations and others) on health workforce forecasting & modelling, collaborating with partners to identify best practices in modelling and aligning definitions and methods as appropriate.
  • Acts as the modelling and forecasting liaison between HWC and CIHI and utilizes CIHI’s Physician Resource planning tool (current and expanded versions) to produce forecast estimates and conduct scenario planning as required.
  • As needed, collects relevant aggregated data to drive predictive modelling, and develops supply and demand forecasting models for health workforce planning to support evidence-based decision making, when other existing modelling tools are unavailable.
  • Develops forecasting and modelling toolkits, including technical, governance and decision-making best practices, and assists with the development of a health workforce planning templates and other knowledge translation activities to support modelling capacity building in the system.
  • Provides expertise for the identification, analysis and assessment of issues, trends and directions related to HHR forecasting including conduct of population demographic trends, health system resources, service utilization patterns, education and training for HHR, addition and attrition of HHR (retirement, migration trends, etc.).
  • Contributes to the development and delivery of HHR forecasting capacity-building activities, including presenting and working with internal and external stakeholders to advance data literacy in Canada.
  • Compiles and synthesizes information from a variety of sources to develop products for a diverse audience (i.e., web content, briefing notes, workshops, reports, etc.) as needed. 
  • Establishes and maintains relevant forecasting & modelling related contacts with internal and external stakeholders.
  • Contributes to the promotion of Health Workforce Canada through the participation of external committees, presentations and/or attendance at conferences and other activities, as required.

Knowledge and Experience

  • Master’s degree in epidemiology, biostatistics, economics, mathematics, or statistics or equivalent combination of experience/education. PhD is considered an asset.
  • 3-5 years of experience in predictive modelling and forecasting in healthcare. Modelling in heath workforce considered an asset.
  • Proficiency with data manipulation and open-source statistical software, such as, R, Python or other statistical software is essential.
  • 3-5 five years’ experience working with health administrative data and/or other big data, knowledge of health workforce data and analysis.
  • Supervisory experience with a strong record of successful team engagement and project management. 
  • Knowledge of health human resources issues and the Canadian health care system, as well as a sound knowledge of health information and its uses for policy development, planning, management and evaluation purposes.
  • Strong Knowledge of health admin data sources in Canada.
  • Experience with stakeholder engagement, client support and communications planning and implementation in the health sector is an asset. 
  • Excellent verbal and written communication, interpersonal, facilitation and presentation skills.  
  • Experience in managing multiple complex projects.  Strong organizational and time management skills and demonstrated attention to detail.
  • Ability to lead and work collaboratively within a matrix team.
  • Advanced skills in the Microsoft Office suite of products
  • Ability to meet travel requirements.
  • Fluency in English is required, bilingualism in both official languages is an asset.

Expression of Interest

Qualified candidates who possess the required technical skills and experience outlined in the attached position descriptions are asked to send an expression of interest and their resume to info@healthworkforce.ca by Friday, April 19, 2024.

Successful candidates will join HWC on a secondment basis from their current employer for a period of up to two years, with the possibility of extension with the agreement of the parties.

HWC promotes diversity and accessibility.  Only candidates who are selected for an interview will be contacted.  HWC thanks all candidates for their consideration.


About Health Workforce Canada

Health Workforce Canada (HWC) is a new, independent organization created in 2023 by a Steering Committee with funding from Health Canada.  HWC will bring together health care and health workforce experts to learn from each other and to strengthen health workforce data and planning, so that together they will help ensure health workers are there to provide the care people in Canada need. 

In its start-up phase, HWC has identified a number of early priorities to help address key health human resources (HHR) issues in Canada. These priorities include pan-Canadian stakeholder engagement, the establishment of a set of HHR communities of practice, and the development of data dashboards and early HHR modelling and forecasting work.